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O. Kingsway vs Dianella WE Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Regular Season - 12 ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 11:00

O. Kingsway

PPG 1.75 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Dianella WE

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-13.6%0-22.6%0-31.2%0-4+0.6%1 1-05.7%1-18.1%1-25.8%1-32.7%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.4%2-19.2%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.8%3-16.9%3-24.9%3-32.3%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-16.6%4+-24.7%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% 57.1% 1.75 -6.6%

Draw 21.2% 27.8% 3.60 -14.2%

Away win 25.3% 27.0% 3.70 -3.8%

Over 2.5 65.8% 69.4% 1.44 -5.3%

Over 3.5 43.7% 47.6% 2.10 -8.2%

BTTS 63.4% 69.4% 1.44 -8.7%

Home O1.5 65.8% 63.7% 1.57 +3.3%

Away O1.5 41.5% 44.4% 2.25 -6.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 6.4%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.4%

H 53% / xG 2.3-1.4 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.1%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 3–1✓ 6.9%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 2–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

O. Kingsway2.3

Dianella WE1.4

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.7%

Form & verdict PPG

O. KINGSWAY · PPG 1.75

DIANELLA WE · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

O. Kingsway (H) 53.4%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -6.6%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -14.2%

Dianella WE (A) 25.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -3.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

O. Kingsway face Dianella WE in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives O. Kingsway a 53% chance, the draw 21% and Dianella WE 25%, so O. Kingsway are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for O. Kingsway and 1.4 for Dianella WE (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, O. Kingsway are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.40 for Dianella WE. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +4.1%. This match finished 3-1.

O. Kingsway vs Dianella WE Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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