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Shaanxi Union vs Nanjing City Prediction— China - League One

Regular Season - 10 ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 07:00

Shaanxi Union

PPG 1.67 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Nanjing City

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-030.2%0-113.9%0-23.2%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-022.3%1-110.2%1-22.4%1-30.4%1-4+0.0%2 2-08.2%2-13.8%2-20.9%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-02.0%3-10.9%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.2%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.2% 52.6% 1.90 -25.5%

Draw 36.9% 31.3% 3.20 +18.1%

Away win 23.9% 25.6% 3.90 -4.1%

Over 2.5 25.8% 50.0% 2.00 -29.0%

Over 3.5 12.5% 28.2% 3.55 -33.4%

BTTS 41.8% 55.6% 1.80 -24.8%

Home O1.5 16.9% 50.0% 2.00 -39.7%

Away O1.5 7.8% 29.9% 3.35 -44.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -33.6%

Bet Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob41.8%

H 39% / xG 0.7-0.5 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 30.2%

#2 1–0 22.3%

#3 0–1✓ 13.9%

#4 1–1 10.2%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shaanxi Union0.7

Nanjing City0.5

COMBINED 1.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 12.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SHAANXI UNION · PPG 1.67

NANJING CITY · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=39.2%

Win probability 1X2

Shaanxi Union (H) 39.2%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -25.5%

Draw 36.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +18.1%

Nanjing City (A) 23.9%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -4.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shaanxi Union face Nanjing City in China - League One on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shaanxi Union a 39% chance, the draw 37% and Nanjing City 24%, so Shaanxi Union are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Shaanxi Union and 0.5 for Nanjing City (1.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shaanxi Union are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.50 for Nanjing City. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +18.1%. This match finished 0-1.

Shaanxi Union vs Nanjing City Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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