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Torpedo Kutaisi vs Gagra Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Regular Season - 16 ·Thursday, May 28, 2026, 16:00

Torpedo Kutaisi

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Gagra

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.7% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-14.9%0-21.3%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-016.5%1-19.1%1-22.5%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.5%2-18.6%2-22.4%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.7%3-15.4%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-07.0%4+-13.9%4+-21.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.7% 64.5% 1.55 -10.6%

Draw 24.0% 27.0% 3.70 -6.7%

Away win 18.4% 20.0% 5.00 -4.8%

Over 2.5 47.6% 57.1% 1.75 -16.7%

Over 3.5 22.6% 37.0% 2.70 -23.4%

BTTS 48.6% 56.2% 1.78 -13.5%

Home O1.5 56.1% 62.9% 1.59 -10.8%

Away O1.5 10.7% 24.7% 4.05 -34.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 6.7%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.6%

H 58% / xG 1.9-0.6 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.5%

#2 1–0 16.5%

#3 1–1 9.1%

#4 0–0 8.7%

#5 3–0 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Torpedo Kutaisi1.9

Gagra0.6

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 22.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TORPEDO KUTAISI · PPG 2.00

GAGRA · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=57.7%

Win probability 1X2

Torpedo Kutaisi (H) 57.7%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -10.6%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -6.7%

Gagra (A) 18.4%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -4.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Torpedo Kutaisi face Gagra in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Thursday, May 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Torpedo Kutaisi a 58% chance, the draw 24% and Gagra 18%, so Torpedo Kutaisi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Torpedo Kutaisi and 0.6 for Gagra (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Torpedo Kutaisi are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.14 for Gagra. This match finished 1-2.

Torpedo Kutaisi vs Gagra Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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