Today / Finland - Ykkönen / JJK vs OLS Oulu

JJK vs OLS Oulu Prediction— Finland - Ykkönen

Group Stage ·Thursday, May 28, 2026, 15:30

JJK

PPG 1.67 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY O1.5

OLS Oulu

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 67.6% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a clear edge.

+29.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-13.6%0-24.2%0-33.3%0-4+3.3%1 1-02.9%1-16.7%1-27.7%1-36.0%1-4+6.1%2 2-02.6%2-16.1%2-27.1%2-35.5%2-4+5.5%3 3-01.6%3-13.7%3-24.3%3-33.4%3-4+3.4%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.6%4+-23.0%4+-32.3%4+-4+2.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.0% 45.5% 2.20 -25.2%

Draw 23.1% 28.6% 3.50 -11.5%

Away win 43.0% 37.0% 2.70 +16.1%

Over 2.5 63.9% 67.6% 1.48 -5.4%

Over 3.5 56.1% 47.6% 2.10 +17.8%

BTTS 63.0% 71.4% 1.40 -11.8%

Home O1.5 54.7% 55.6% 1.80 -1.5%

Away O1.5 67.6% 52.4% 1.91 +29.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob63.0%

A 43% / xG 1.8-2.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.7%

#2 1–1 6.7%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 2–1 6.1%

#5 1–3 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

JJK1.8

OLS Oulu2.3

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 56.1%

Form & verdict PPG

JJK · PPG 1.67

OLS OULU · PPG 2.00

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.67) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

JJK (H) 34.0%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -25.2%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -11.5%

OLS Oulu (A) 43.0%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +16.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

JJK face OLS Oulu in Finland - Ykkönen on Thursday, May 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives JJK a 34% chance, the draw 23% and OLS Oulu 43%, so OLS Oulu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for JJK and 2.3 for OLS Oulu (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, JJK are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 2.00 for OLS Oulu. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +54.0%. This match finished 1-0.

JJK vs OLS Oulu Prediction— Finland - Ykkönen

Match Preview & Prediction

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