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Sporting JAX vs San Antonio Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Wednesday, May 27, 2026, 23:30

Sporting JAX

PPG 0.00 · HOME

4 – 4

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

San Antonio

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+29.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-111.5%0-211.6%0-37.8%0-4+6.2%1 1-04.8%1-19.8%1-29.8%1-36.6%1-4+5.3%2 2-02.1%2-14.1%2-24.2%2-32.8%2-4+2.2%3 3-00.6%3-11.2%3-21.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.2% 31.3% 3.20 -32.7%

Draw 24.3% 30.3% 3.30 -11.9%

Away win 61.5% 47.6% 2.10 +29.1%

Over 2.5 59.1% 51.3% 1.95 +15.2%

Over 3.5 33.3% 29.0% 3.45 +14.9%

BTTS 51.6% 57.8% 1.73 -10.7%

Home O1.5 20.9% 35.1% 2.85 -24.3%

Away O1.5 59.8% 47.6% 2.10 +25.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 0.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-4

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob51.6%

A 62% / xG 0.8-2.0 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 11.6%

#2 1–1 9.8%

#3 0–1 11.5%

#4 1–2 9.8%

#5 0–3 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting JAX0.8

San Antonio2.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING JAX · PPG 0.00

SAN ANTONIO · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Sporting JAX (H) 14.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -32.7%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.9%

San Antonio (A) 61.5%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +29.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting JAX face San Antonio in USA - USL Championship on Wednesday, May 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting JAX a 14% chance, the draw 24% and San Antonio 62%, so San Antonio are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Sporting JAX and 2.0 for San Antonio (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting JAX are averaging 0.00 points per game versus 1.20 for San Antonio. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +49.4%. This match finished 4-4.

Sporting JAX vs San Antonio Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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