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Hertha Berlin B vs Chemie Leipzig Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Nordost - 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Hertha Berlin B

PPG 1.62 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Chemie Leipzig

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-14.6%0-22.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.2%1-19.5%1-25.5%1-32.1%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.5%2-19.8%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.8%3-16.8%3-23.9%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-15.6%4+-23.3%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.2% 48.8% 2.05 +19.3%

Draw 21.0% 27.8% 3.60 -24.4%

Away win 20.8% 33.9% 2.95 -38.6%

Over 2.5 62.6% 58.8% 1.70 +6.4%

Over 3.5 40.4% 36.4% 2.75 +11.1%

BTTS 60.0% 63.7% 1.57 -5.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.0%

H 58% / xG 2.1-1.2 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.8%

#2 1–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 8.5%

#4 1–0 8.2%

#5 3–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hertha Berlin B2.1

Chemie Leipzig1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.4%

Form & verdict PPG

HERTHA BERLIN B · PPG 1.62

CHEMIE LEIPZIG · PPG 0.64

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.62) vs P(Home)=58.2%

Win probability 1X2

Hertha Berlin B (H) 58.2%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +19.3%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -24.4%

Chemie Leipzig (A) 20.8%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -38.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hertha Berlin B face Chemie Leipzig in Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hertha Berlin B a 58% chance, the draw 21% and Chemie Leipzig 21%, so Hertha Berlin B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Hertha Berlin B and 1.2 for Chemie Leipzig (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hertha Berlin B are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.64 for Chemie Leipzig. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +19.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Hertha Berlin B vs Chemie Leipzig Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Match Preview & Prediction

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