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Nantong Haimen vs Shanghai Segend Prediction— China - League Two

Regular Season - 10 ·Wednesday, May 27, 2026, 11:30

Nantong Haimen

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Shanghai Segend

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 56.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-14.6%0-21.8%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.5%1-19.4%1-23.6%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.7%2-19.6%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.6%3-16.5%3-22.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.0%4+-15.3%4+-22.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.3% 66.7% 1.50 -11.1%

Draw 22.9% 27.8% 3.60 -10.5%

Away win 17.8% 17.4% 5.75 +1.4%

Over 2.5 52.6% 50.0% 2.00 +5.2%

Over 3.5 30.6% 31.3% 3.20 -2.1%

BTTS 51.6% 52.4% 1.91 -1.4%

Home O1.5 60.4% 56.8% 1.76 +6.3%

Away O1.5 17.6% 22.2% 4.50 -12.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 1.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.6%

H 59% / xG 2.0-0.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.7%

#2 1–0 12.5%

#3 1–1 9.4%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 3–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nantong Haimen2.0

Shanghai Segend0.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NANTONG HAIMEN · PPG 1.50

SHANGHAI SEGEND · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Nantong Haimen (H) 59.3%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -11.1%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -10.5%

Shanghai Segend (A) 17.8%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +1.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nantong Haimen face Shanghai Segend in China - League Two on Wednesday, May 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nantong Haimen a 59% chance, the draw 23% and Shanghai Segend 18%, so Nantong Haimen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Nantong Haimen and 0.8 for Shanghai Segend (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nantong Haimen are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Shanghai Segend. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +6.3%. This match finished 2-2.

Nantong Haimen vs Shanghai Segend Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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