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Xiamen Feilu vs Jiangxi Lushan Prediction— China - League Two

Regular Season - 10 ·Wednesday, May 27, 2026, 08:00

Xiamen Feilu

PPG 2.50 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Jiangxi Lushan

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.1% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a clear edge.

+12.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-16.5%0-23.8%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.6%1-111.2%1-26.5%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.6%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.8%3-15.5%3-23.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.5%4+-22.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.8% 42.6% 2.35 +19.4%

Draw 25.1% 32.3% 3.10 -13.3%

Away win 24.0% 37.7% 2.65 -21.8%

Over 2.5 59.1% 52.6% 1.90 +12.3%

Over 3.5 32.8% 31.3% 3.20 +5.0%

BTTS 55.8% 59.9% 1.67 -6.8%

Home O1.5 51.5% 43.7% 2.29 +17.9%

Away O1.5 32.5% 40.3% 2.48 -19.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 1.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.8%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0✓ 8.3%

#4 1–0 9.6%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Xiamen Feilu1.7

Jiangxi Lushan1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

XIAMEN FEILU · PPG 2.50

JIANGXI LUSHAN · PPG 1.25

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=50.8%

Win probability 1X2

Xiamen Feilu (H) 50.8%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV +19.4%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -13.3%

Jiangxi Lushan (A) 24.0%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -21.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Xiamen Feilu face Jiangxi Lushan in China - League Two on Wednesday, May 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Xiamen Feilu a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Jiangxi Lushan 24%, so Xiamen Feilu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Xiamen Feilu and 1.2 for Jiangxi Lushan (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Xiamen Feilu are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.25 for Jiangxi Lushan. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +25.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Xiamen Feilu vs Jiangxi Lushan Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - League Two Predictions