Today / China - League Two / Shanxi Ronghai vs Qingdao RL

Shanxi Ronghai vs Qingdao RL Prediction— China - League Two

Regular Season - 10 ·Wednesday, May 27, 2026, 07:00

Shanxi Ronghai

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Qingdao RL

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.9%0-18.7%0-22.0%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-022.7%1-110.5%1-22.4%1-30.4%1-4+0.0%2 2-013.7%2-16.3%2-21.5%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-05.5%3-12.5%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-11.0%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.1% 54.1% 1.85 -5.5%

Draw 28.8% 31.3% 3.20 -4.7%

Away win 20.1% 26.3% 3.80 -14.2%

Over 2.5 35.0% 50.0% 2.00 -30.0%

Over 3.5 8.9% 28.6% 3.50 -41.3%

BTTS 44.0% 54.1% 1.85 -18.6%

Home O1.5 34.0% 49.0% 2.04 -30.6%

Away O1.5 7.9% 27.5% 3.64 -42.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 1.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob44.0%

H 51% / xG 1.2-0.5 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 22.7%

#2 0–0 18.9%

#3 2–0 13.7%

#4 1–1 10.5%

#5 0–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shanxi Ronghai1.2

Qingdao RL0.5

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 8.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SHANXI RONGHAI · PPG 1.50

QINGDAO RL · PPG 0.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=51.1%

Win probability 1X2

Shanxi Ronghai (H) 51.1%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -5.5%

Draw 28.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -4.7%

Qingdao RL (A) 20.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -14.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shanxi Ronghai face Qingdao RL in China - League Two on Wednesday, May 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shanxi Ronghai a 51% chance, the draw 29% and Qingdao RL 20%, so Shanxi Ronghai are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Shanxi Ronghai and 0.5 for Qingdao RL (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shanxi Ronghai are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.25 for Qingdao RL. This match finished 2-3.

Shanxi Ronghai vs Qingdao RL Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - League Two Predictions