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Yate Town vs Gloucester City Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern South

Regular Season - 41 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Yate Town

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Gloucester City

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.0% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-17.4%0-27.8%0-35.4%0-4+4.6%1 1-04.4%1-19.2%1-29.7%1-36.8%1-4+5.8%2 2-02.7%2-15.7%2-26.0%2-34.2%2-4+3.6%3 3-01.1%3-12.4%3-22.5%3-31.8%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.2% 28.6% 3.50 -22.3%

Draw 20.8% 25.6% 3.90 -18.9%

Away win 57.0% 57.1% 1.75 -0.3%

Over 2.5 65.0% 65.4% 1.53 -0.5%

Over 3.5 43.0% — — —

BTTS 62.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob62.5%

A 57% / xG 1.2-2.1 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.7%

#2 1–1 9.2%

#3 0–2 7.8%

#4 0–1 7.4%

#5 1–3 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Yate Town1.2

Gloucester City2.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

YATE TOWN · PPG 1.50

GLOUCESTER CITY · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Yate Town (H) 22.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -22.3%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -18.9%

Gloucester City (A) 57.0%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -0.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Yate Town face Gloucester City in England - Non League Premier - Southern South on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yate Town a 22% chance, the draw 21% and Gloucester City 57%, so Gloucester City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Yate Town and 2.1 for Gloucester City (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yate Town are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.60 for Gloucester City. This match finished 2-1.

Yate Town vs Gloucester City Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern South

Match Preview & Prediction

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