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Berkhamsted vs Weymouth Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern South

Regular Season - 42 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Berkhamsted

PPG 1.85 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Weymouth

PPG 1.15 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 62.5% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+21.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-14.5%0-22.3%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.5%1-19.5%1-24.8%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.9%2-19.9%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.9%3-16.9%3-23.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-15.9%4+-22.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.5% 51.3% 1.95 +21.9%

Draw 20.3% 30.3% 3.30 -33.0%

Away win 17.2% 32.3% 3.10 -46.7%

Over 2.5 59.7% — — —

Over 3.5 37.4% — — —

BTTS 55.4% 63.7% 1.57 -13.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.4%

H 62% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.9%

#2 2–0✓ 9.9%

#3 1–1 9.5%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 3–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Berkhamsted2.1

Weymouth1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BERKHAMSTED · PPG 1.85

WEYMOUTH · PPG 1.15

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.85) > Away AVERAGE (1.15)

Win probability 1X2

Berkhamsted (H) 62.5%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +21.9%

Draw 20.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -33.0%

Weymouth (A) 17.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -46.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Berkhamsted face Weymouth in England - Non League Premier - Southern South on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Berkhamsted a 63% chance, the draw 20% and Weymouth 17%, so Berkhamsted are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Berkhamsted and 1.0 for Weymouth (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Berkhamsted are averaging 1.85 points per game versus 1.15 for Weymouth. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +21.9%. This match finished 2-0.

Berkhamsted vs Weymouth Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern South

Match Preview & Prediction

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