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Chertsey Town vs Hungerford Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern South

Regular Season - 42 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Chertsey Town

PPG 1.75 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Hungerford

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 74.2% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a clear edge.

+18.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-12.4%0-21.2%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-06.7%1-16.6%1-23.2%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.2%2-18.9%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.3%3-18.1%3-24.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-011.0%4+-110.7%4+-25.2%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 74.2% 62.5% 1.60 +18.7%

Draw 14.9% 26.0% 3.85 -42.6%

Away win 10.9% 23.8% 4.20 -54.2%

Over 2.5 71.5% — — —

Over 3.5 50.6% 48.8% 2.05 +3.7%

BTTS 58.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 73%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob58.2%

H 74% / xG 2.7-1.0 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.2%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 3–0 8.3%

#4 3–1 8.1%

#5 1–0✓ 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chertsey Town2.7

Hungerford1.0

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.5% · O3.5 PROB 50.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CHERTSEY TOWN · PPG 1.75

HUNGERFORD · PPG 0.80

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.75), Away POOR (0.80) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Chertsey Town (H) 74.2%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV +18.7%

Draw 14.9%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -42.6%

Hungerford (A) 10.9%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -54.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chertsey Town face Hungerford in England - Non League Premier - Southern South on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chertsey Town a 74% chance, the draw 15% and Hungerford 11%, so Chertsey Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Chertsey Town and 1.0 for Hungerford (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chertsey Town are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.80 for Hungerford. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.7%. This match finished 1-0.

Chertsey Town vs Hungerford Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern South

Match Preview & Prediction

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