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Tiverton Town vs Farnham Town Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern South

Regular Season - 42 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Tiverton Town

PPG 0.56 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Farnham Town

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 87.0% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-13.9%0-27.1%0-38.8%0-4+21.1%1 1-00.9%1-13.4%1-26.2%1-37.6%1-4+18.3%2 2-00.4%2-11.5%2-22.7%2-33.3%2-4+8.0%3 3-00.1%3-10.4%3-20.8%3-31.0%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 4.7% 10.0% 10.00 -53.0%

Draw 8.3% 19.6% 5.10 -57.7%

Away win 87.0% 82.0% 1.22 +6.1%

Over 2.5 83.3% — — —

Over 3.5 66.7% 52.6% 1.90 +26.7%

BTTS 56.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 76%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)3.7 BTTS prob56.6%

A 87% / xG 0.9-3.7 / O2.5 83% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3✓ 8.8%

#2 0–4 8.1%

#3 1–3 7.6%

#4 0–2 7.1%

#5 1–4 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tiverton Town0.9

Farnham Town3.7

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 83.3% · O3.5 PROB 66.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TIVERTON TOWN · PPG 0.56

FARNHAM TOWN · PPG 2.00

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.56)

Win probability 1X2

Tiverton Town (H) 4.7%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV -53.0%

Draw 8.3%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV -57.7%

Farnham Town (A) 87.0%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV +6.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tiverton Town face Farnham Town in England - Non League Premier - Southern South on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tiverton Town a 5% chance, the draw 8% and Farnham Town 87%, so Farnham Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Tiverton Town and 3.7 for Farnham Town (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 83% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tiverton Town are averaging 0.56 points per game versus 2.00 for Farnham Town. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +26.7%. This match finished 0-3.

Tiverton Town vs Farnham Town Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern South

Match Preview & Prediction

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