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Dorchester vs Sholing Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern South

Regular Season - 42 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Dorchester

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sholing

PPG 1.35 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-18.8%0-28.5%0-35.6%0-4+4.3%1 1-05.2%1-110.1%1-29.8%1-36.4%1-4+4.9%2 2-03.0%2-15.8%2-25.7%2-33.7%2-4+2.8%3 3-01.1%3-12.2%3-22.2%3-31.4%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.8%4+-20.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.1% 26.3% 3.80 -16.0%

Draw 21.9% 28.6% 3.50 -23.4%

Away win 56.0% 57.1% 1.75 -2.0%

Over 2.5 60.0% — — —

Over 3.5 37.6% — — —

BTTS 58.7% 66.7% 1.50 -11.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob58.7%

A 56% / xG 1.2-2.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–1 8.8%

#4 0–2 8.5%

#5 1–3 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dorchester1.2

Sholing2.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.0% · O3.5 PROB 37.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DORCHESTER · PPG 1.00

SHOLING · PPG 1.35

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.00) vs Away AVERAGE (1.35)

Win probability 1X2

Dorchester (H) 22.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -16.0%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -23.4%

Sholing (A) 56.0%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -2.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dorchester face Sholing in England - Non League Premier - Southern South on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dorchester a 22% chance, the draw 22% and Sholing 56%, so Sholing are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Dorchester and 2.0 for Sholing (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dorchester are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.35 for Sholing. This match finished 0-4.

Dorchester vs Sholing Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern South

Match Preview & Prediction

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