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Hanwell Town vs Basingstoke T. Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern South

Regular Season - 42 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Hanwell Town

PPG 1.58 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Basingstoke T.

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.58) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-15.8%0-23.9%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-07.7%1-110.4%1-27.0%1-33.2%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.9%2-19.4%2-26.3%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.2%3-15.6%3-23.8%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.8%4+-22.6%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.1% 43.5% 2.30 +10.6%

Draw 23.0% 29.4% 3.40 -21.8%

Away win 28.9% 39.2% 2.55 -26.3%

Over 2.5 61.0% 62.5% 1.60 -2.4%

Over 3.5 38.7% — — —

BTTS 61.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.9%

H 48% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1✓ 9.4%

#3 1–0 7.7%

#4 1–2 7.0%

#5 2–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hanwell Town1.8

Basingstoke T.1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.0% · O3.5 PROB 38.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HANWELL TOWN · PPG 1.58

BASINGSTOKE T. · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.58) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Hanwell Town (H) 48.1%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +10.6%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -21.8%

Basingstoke T. (A) 28.9%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -26.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hanwell Town face Basingstoke T. in England - Non League Premier - Southern South on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hanwell Town a 48% chance, the draw 23% and Basingstoke T. 29%, so Hanwell Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Hanwell Town and 1.4 for Basingstoke T. (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hanwell Town are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 1.00 for Basingstoke T.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +10.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Hanwell Town vs Basingstoke T. Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern South

Match Preview & Prediction

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