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Gloucester City vs Walton e H. Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern South

Regular Season - 42 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Gloucester City

PPG 2.35 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Walton e H.

PPG 2.05 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-14.8%0-24.2%0-32.4%0-4+1.6%1 1-05.0%1-18.8%1-27.7%1-34.5%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.6%2-18.2%2-27.2%2-34.2%2-4+2.7%3 3-02.9%3-15.0%3-24.4%3-32.6%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-13.6%4+-23.1%4+-31.8%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.0% 50.0% 2.00 -18.0%

Draw 21.9% 30.3% 3.30 -27.7%

Away win 37.1% 33.3% 3.00 +11.3%

Over 2.5 69.9% — — —

Over 3.5 48.7% — — —

BTTS 69.8% 71.4% 1.40 -2.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob69.8%

H 41% / xG 1.9-1.8 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 2–1 8.2%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gloucester City1.9

Walton e H.1.8

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.9% · O3.5 PROB 48.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GLOUCESTER CITY · PPG 2.35

WALTON E H. · PPG 2.05

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.35) > Away EXCELLENT (2.05)

Win probability 1X2

Gloucester City (H) 41.0%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -18.0%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -27.7%

Walton e H. (A) 37.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +11.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gloucester City face Walton e H. in England - Non League Premier - Southern South on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gloucester City a 41% chance, the draw 22% and Walton e H. 37%, so Gloucester City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Gloucester City and 1.8 for Walton e H. (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gloucester City are averaging 2.35 points per game versus 2.05 for Walton e H.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +11.3%. This match finished 1-0.

Gloucester City vs Walton e H. Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern South

Match Preview & Prediction

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