Today / England - Non League Premier - Southern South / Havant e W. vs Yate Town

Havant e W. vs Yate Town Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern South

Regular Season - 42 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Havant e W.

PPG 1.65 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Yate Town

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 71.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-13.2%0-22.1%0-30.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-05.9%1-17.7%1-25.1%1-32.2%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.0%2-19.2%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.6%3-17.4%3-24.8%3-32.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-17.8%4+-25.1%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.5% 57.1% 1.75 +7.6%

Draw 18.8% 27.4% 3.65 -31.4%

Away win 19.7% 27.4% 3.65 -28.1%

Over 2.5 71.6% 66.7% 1.50 +7.4%

Over 3.5 50.8% — — —

BTTS 66.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob66.4%

H 62% / xG 2.4-1.3 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.2%

#2 1–1 7.7%

#3 3–1 7.4%

#4 2–0 7.0%

#5 2–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Havant e W.2.4

Yate Town1.3

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.6% · O3.5 PROB 50.8%

Form & verdict PPG

HAVANT E W. · PPG 1.65

YATE TOWN · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.65) vs P(Home)=61.5%

Win probability 1X2

Havant e W. (H) 61.5%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV +7.6%

Draw 18.8%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -31.4%

Yate Town (A) 19.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -28.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Havant e W. face Yate Town in England - Non League Premier - Southern South on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Havant e W. a 62% chance, the draw 19% and Yate Town 20%, so Havant e W. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Havant e W. and 1.3 for Yate Town (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Havant e W. are averaging 1.65 points per game versus 0.80 for Yate Town. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +7.6%. This match finished 1-3.

Havant e W. vs Yate Town Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern South

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - Non League Premier - Southern South Predictions