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Gosport Borough vs P. Parkway Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern South

Regular Season - 42 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Gosport Borough

PPG 1.65 · HOME

3 – 6

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

P. Parkway

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-12.4%0-21.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.5%1 1-04.2%1-16.3%1-24.7%1-32.4%1-4+1.2%2 2-05.6%2-18.3%2-26.2%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.9%3-17.3%3-25.5%3-32.7%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-19.1%4+-26.8%4+-33.4%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.0% 47.6% 2.10 +30.2%

Draw 17.7% 30.3% 3.30 -41.6%

Away win 20.3% 34.5% 2.90 -41.1%

Over 2.5 78.0% — — —

Over 3.5 59.2% — — —

BTTS 72.0% 71.4% 1.40 +0.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-6

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob72.0%

H 62% / xG 2.6-1.5 / O2.5 78% / BTTS 72%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.3%

#2 3–1 7.3%

#3 1–1 6.3%

#4 2–2 6.2%

#5 2–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gosport Borough2.6

P. Parkway1.5

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.0% · O3.5 PROB 59.2%

Form & verdict PPG

GOSPORT BOROUGH · PPG 1.65

P. PARKWAY · PPG 0.85

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.65) > Away POOR (0.85)

Win probability 1X2

Gosport Borough (H) 62.0%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +30.2%

Draw 17.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -41.6%

P. Parkway (A) 20.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -41.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gosport Borough face P. Parkway in England - Non League Premier - Southern South on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gosport Borough a 62% chance, the draw 18% and P. Parkway 20%, so Gosport Borough are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Gosport Borough and 1.5 for P. Parkway (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 78% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 72% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gosport Borough are averaging 1.65 points per game versus 0.85 for P. Parkway. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +30.2%. This match finished 3-6.

Gosport Borough vs P. Parkway Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern South

Match Preview & Prediction

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