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Uxbridge vs Poole Town Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern South

Regular Season - 42 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Uxbridge

PPG 1.55 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Poole Town

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-15.7%0-25.5%0-33.6%0-4+2.7%1 1-04.7%1-19.1%1-28.8%1-35.6%1-4+4.2%2 2-03.8%2-17.2%2-27.0%2-34.5%2-4+3.3%3 3-02.0%3-13.8%3-23.7%3-32.4%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.2%4+-22.1%4+-31.3%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.1% 46.5% 2.15 -31.0%

Draw 21.9% 28.2% 3.55 -22.3%

Away win 46.0% 37.0% 2.70 +24.2%

Over 2.5 68.1% — — —

Over 3.5 46.6% 46.5% 2.15 +0.2%

BTTS 67.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob67.9%

A 46% / xG 1.6-1.9 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 7.2%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 0–1 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Uxbridge1.6

Poole Town1.9

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.1% · O3.5 PROB 46.6%

Form & verdict PPG

UXBRIDGE · PPG 1.55

POOLE TOWN · PPG 1.75

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.55), Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Uxbridge (H) 32.1%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -31.0%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -22.3%

Poole Town (A) 46.0%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +24.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Uxbridge face Poole Town in England - Non League Premier - Southern South on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Uxbridge a 32% chance, the draw 22% and Poole Town 46%, so Poole Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Uxbridge and 1.9 for Poole Town (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Uxbridge are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.75 for Poole Town. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +24.2%. This match finished 3-3.

Uxbridge vs Poole Town Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern South

Match Preview & Prediction

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