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Taunton Town vs Evesham United Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern South

Regular Season - 42 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Taunton Town

PPG 1.58 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Evesham United

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-14.8%0-23.0%0-31.3%0-4+0.6%1 1-07.5%1-19.6%1-26.1%1-32.6%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.5%2-19.6%2-26.2%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.0%3-16.5%3-24.1%3-31.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-15.2%4+-23.3%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.3% 46.5% 2.15 +16.8%

Draw 21.5% 28.6% 3.50 -24.8%

Away win 24.1% 38.2% 2.62 -36.9%

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 41.8% — — —

BTTS 62.6% 63.7% 1.57 -1.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.6%

H 54% / xG 2.0-1.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.6%

#2 1–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.5%

#4 1–0 7.5%

#5 3–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Taunton Town2.0

Evesham United1.3

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 41.8%

Form & verdict PPG

TAUNTON TOWN · PPG 1.58

EVESHAM UNITED · PPG 0.75

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.58) vs P(Home)=54.3%

Win probability 1X2

Taunton Town (H) 54.3%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +16.8%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -24.8%

Evesham United (A) 24.1%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -36.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Taunton Town face Evesham United in England - Non League Premier - Southern South on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Taunton Town a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Evesham United 24%, so Taunton Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Taunton Town and 1.3 for Evesham United (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Taunton Town are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 0.75 for Evesham United. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +16.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Taunton Town vs Evesham United Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern South

Match Preview & Prediction

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