Today / Iceland - Úrvalsdeild / Stjarnan vs Vikingur R.

Stjarnan vs Vikingur R. Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Regular Season - 14 ·Tuesday, May 26, 2026, 19:15

Stjarnan

PPG 0.60 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Vikingur R.

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 89.5% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4% — a clear edge.

+27.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-13.8%0-27.3%0-39.3%0-4+24.3%1 1-00.8%1-13.0%1-25.7%1-37.3%1-4+19.1%2 2-00.3%2-11.2%2-22.2%2-32.9%2-4+7.5%3 3-00.1%3-10.3%3-20.6%3-30.7%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 9.2% 21.1% 4.75 -33.8%

Draw 21.5% 23.8% 4.20 -5.8%

Away win 69.3% 65.4% 1.53 +6.0%

Over 2.5 72.9% 70.4% 1.42 +3.5%

Over 3.5 67.7% 47.6% 2.10 +42.2%

BTTS 52.6% 69.0% 1.45 -23.7%

Home O1.5 18.6% 37.7% 2.65 -30.4%

Away O1.5 89.5% 70.4% 1.42 +27.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -7.2%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)3.8 BTTS prob52.6%

A 69% / xG 0.8-3.8 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 9.3%

#2 0–4 8.9%

#3 1–3✓ 7.3%

#4 0–2 7.3%

#5 1–4 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stjarnan0.8

Vikingur R.3.8

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.9% · O3.5 PROB 67.7%

Form & verdict PPG

STJARNAN · PPG 0.60

VIKINGUR R. · PPG 3.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Stjarnan (H) 9.2%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -33.8%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -5.8%

Vikingur R. (A) 69.3%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV +6.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stjarnan face Vikingur R. in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Tuesday, May 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stjarnan a 9% chance, the draw 22% and Vikingur R. 69%, so Vikingur R. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Stjarnan and 3.8 for Vikingur R. (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stjarnan are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 3.00 for Vikingur R.. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +54.0%. This match finished 1-3.

Stjarnan vs Vikingur R. Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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