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KR Reykjavik vs Valur Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Regular Season - 16 ·Tuesday, May 26, 2026, 19:15

KR Reykjavik

PPG 2.50 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O3.5

Valur

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 3.5

Combined xG of 6.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 90.0% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a clear edge.

+37.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.1%0-10.4%0-20.5%0-30.5%0-4+0.7%1 1-00.5%1-11.4%1-21.9%1-31.8%1-4+2.5%2 2-00.9%2-12.6%2-23.7%2-33.5%2-4+4.9%3 3-01.2%3-13.4%3-24.8%3-34.5%3-4+6.3%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-19.1%4+-212.8%4+-312.0%4+-4+16.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% 65.4% 1.53 -19.5%

Draw 21.7% 21.7% 4.60 -0.1%

Away win 25.7% 23.1% 4.33 +6.8%

Over 2.5 79.0% 83.3% 1.20 -5.2%

Over 3.5 90.0% 65.4% 1.53 +37.7%

BTTS 73.2% 80.0% 1.25 -8.5%

Home O1.5 89.8% 80.0% 1.25 +12.3%

Away O1.5 77.1% 51.8% 1.93 +48.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -7.2%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)3.9 xG (away)2.8 BTTS prob73.2%

H 53% / xG 3.9-2.8 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 73%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–2 4.8%

#2 4–2 4.6%

#3 3–3 4.5%

#4 4–3 4.3%

#5 2–2 3.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KR Reykjavik3.9

Valur2.8

COMBINED 6.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.0% · O3.5 PROB 90.0%

Form & verdict PPG

KR REYKJAVIK · PPG 2.50

VALUR · PPG 2.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.50) > Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

KR Reykjavik (H) 52.6%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -19.5%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -0.1%

Valur (A) 25.7%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +6.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

KR Reykjavik face Valur in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Tuesday, May 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KR Reykjavik a 53% chance, the draw 22% and Valur 26%, so KR Reykjavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.9 for KR Reykjavik and 2.8 for Valur (6.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-2. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 73% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KR Reykjavik are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 2.00 for Valur. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +48.8%. This match finished 3-1.

KR Reykjavik vs Valur Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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