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Weymouth vs Chertsey Town Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern South

Regular Season - 41 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Weymouth

PPG 1.05 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Chertsey Town

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.05) vs Away AVERAGE (1.45)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-110.4%0-28.3%0-34.5%0-4+2.6%1 1-07.3%1-111.8%1-29.4%1-35.0%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.2%2-16.7%2-25.3%2-32.9%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.6%3-12.5%3-22.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.9% 44.4% 2.25 -39.5%

Draw 24.8% 27.0% 3.70 -8.2%

Away win 48.3% 40.0% 2.50 +20.8%

Over 2.5 51.5% 62.5% 1.60 -17.6%

Over 3.5 29.3% — — —

BTTS 54.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob54.1%

A 48% / xG 1.1-1.6 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 0–1 10.4%

#3 1–2 9.4%

#4 0–2 8.3%

#5 1–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Weymouth1.1

Chertsey Town1.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.5% · O3.5 PROB 29.3%

Form & verdict PPG

WEYMOUTH · PPG 1.05

CHERTSEY TOWN · PPG 1.45

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.05) vs Away AVERAGE (1.45)

Win probability 1X2

Weymouth (H) 26.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -39.5%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -8.2%

Chertsey Town (A) 48.3%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +20.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Weymouth face Chertsey Town in England - Non League Premier - Southern South on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Weymouth a 27% chance, the draw 25% and Chertsey Town 48%, so Chertsey Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Weymouth and 1.6 for Chertsey Town (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Weymouth are averaging 1.05 points per game versus 1.45 for Chertsey Town. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +20.8%. This match finished 5-1.

Weymouth vs Chertsey Town Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern South

Match Preview & Prediction

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