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Orebro vs Helsingborg Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 9 ·Tuesday, May 26, 2026, 17:00

Orebro

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDWD

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Helsingborg

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 61% chance

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-17.0%0-25.0%0-32.4%0-4+1.2%1 1-07.8%1-111.1%1-28.0%1-33.8%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.1%2-18.8%2-26.3%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.2%3-14.6%3-23.3%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.6%4+-21.9%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.9% 44.4% 2.25 -5.7%

Draw 24.9% 29.0% 3.45 -8.5%

Away win 33.2% 33.3% 3.00 -0.4%

Over 2.5 59.1% 54.6% 1.83 +8.2%

Over 3.5 35.5% 32.3% 3.10 +10.1%

BTTS 59.7% 61.7% 1.62 -3.3%

Home O1.5 46.9% 47.6% 2.10 -1.5%

Away O1.5 41.9% 39.2% 2.55 +6.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 107 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.7%

H 42% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2✓ 8.0%

#4 0–0 4.9%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orebro1.6

Helsingborg1.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 35.5%

Form & verdict PPG

OREBRO · PPG 1.75

HELSINGBORG · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

61%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=41.9%

Win probability 1X2

Orebro (H) 41.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -5.7%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -8.5%

Helsingborg (A) 33.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -0.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orebro face Helsingborg in Sweden - Superettan on Tuesday, May 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orebro a 42% chance, the draw 25% and Helsingborg 33%, so Orebro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Orebro and 1.4 for Helsingborg (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orebro are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.33 for Helsingborg. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Orebro vs Helsingborg Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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