Today / England - Non League Premier - Southern South / Walton e H. vs Uxbridge

Walton e H. vs Uxbridge Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern South

Regular Season - 41 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Walton e H.

PPG 2.50 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Uxbridge

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 77.8% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4% — a clear edge.

+12.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-11.8%0-20.9%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-05.0%1-15.3%1-22.9%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-07.6%2-18.1%2-24.4%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.7%3-18.2%3-24.4%3-31.6%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-012.4%4+-113.3%4+-27.1%4+-32.5%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.6% 65.4% 1.53 +17.2%

Draw 13.3% 23.1% 4.33 -42.4%

Away win 10.1% 22.2% 4.50 -54.5%

Over 2.5 77.8% 69.4% 1.44 +12.0%

Over 3.5 58.8% — — —

BTTS 62.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 73%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob62.6%

H 77% / xG 3.0-1.1 / O2.5 78% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.2%

#2 2–1 8.1%

#3 3–0 7.7%

#4 2–0 7.6%

#5 4–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Walton e H.3.0

Uxbridge1.1

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 77.8% · O3.5 PROB 58.8%

Form & verdict PPG

WALTON E H. · PPG 2.50

UXBRIDGE · PPG 1.30

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.50), Away AVERAGE (1.30) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Walton e H. (H) 76.6%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV +17.2%

Draw 13.3%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -42.4%

Uxbridge (A) 10.1%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -54.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Walton e H. face Uxbridge in England - Non League Premier - Southern South on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Walton e H. a 77% chance, the draw 13% and Uxbridge 10%, so Walton e H. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Walton e H. and 1.1 for Uxbridge (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 78% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Walton e H. are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.30 for Uxbridge. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +17.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Walton e H. vs Uxbridge Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern South

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - Non League Premier - Southern South Predictions