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Taunton Town vs Bracknell Town Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern South

Regular Season - 41 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Taunton Town

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Bracknell Town

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.2% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-14.0%0-23.7%0-32.2%0-4+1.5%1 1-04.4%1-18.0%1-27.3%1-34.4%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.4%2-18.0%2-27.3%2-34.4%2-4+3.0%3 3-02.9%3-15.3%3-24.8%3-32.9%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-14.2%4+-23.8%4+-32.3%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.9% 54.6% 1.83 -21.5%

Draw 21.2% 25.0% 4.00 -15.2%

Away win 35.9% 32.3% 3.10 +11.3%

Over 2.5 73.2% 69.4% 1.44 +5.4%

Over 3.5 52.8% — — —

BTTS 72.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob72.3%

H 43% / xG 2.0-1.8 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 72%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.0%

#2 2–1 8.0%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–2 7.3%

#5 3–1 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Taunton Town2.0

Bracknell Town1.8

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.2% · O3.5 PROB 52.8%

Form & verdict PPG

TAUNTON TOWN · PPG 1.50

BRACKNELL TOWN · PPG 1.21

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away AVERAGE (1.21)

Win probability 1X2

Taunton Town (H) 42.9%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -21.5%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -15.2%

Bracknell Town (A) 35.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +11.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Taunton Town face Bracknell Town in England - Non League Premier - Southern South on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Taunton Town a 43% chance, the draw 21% and Bracknell Town 36%, so Taunton Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Taunton Town and 1.8 for Bracknell Town (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 72% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Taunton Town are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.21 for Bracknell Town. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +11.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Taunton Town vs Bracknell Town Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern South

Match Preview & Prediction

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