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Sholing vs Wimborne Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern South

Regular Season - 41 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Sholing

PPG 1.90 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Wimborne

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.5% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-14.4%0-22.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.4%1-19.3%1-25.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.9%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.3%3-17.0%3-23.8%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-16.0%4+-23.3%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.6% 59.9% 1.67 +1.2%

Draw 20.4% 26.3% 3.80 -22.5%

Away win 19.0% 26.3% 3.80 -27.8%

Over 2.5 62.5% 61.7% 1.62 +1.3%

Over 3.5 40.2% — — —

BTTS 58.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.8%

H 61% / xG 2.1-1.1 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.9%

#2 1–1 9.3%

#3 2–0 9.0%

#4 1–0 8.4%

#5 3–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sholing2.1

Wimborne1.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.5% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SHOLING · PPG 1.90

WIMBORNE · PPG 0.79

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.90) vs P(Home)=60.6%

Win probability 1X2

Sholing (H) 60.6%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV +1.2%

Draw 20.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -22.5%

Wimborne (A) 19.0%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -27.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sholing face Wimborne in England - Non League Premier - Southern South on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sholing a 61% chance, the draw 20% and Wimborne 19%, so Sholing are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Sholing and 1.1 for Wimborne (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sholing are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 0.79 for Wimborne. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.3%. This match finished 2-2.

Sholing vs Wimborne Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern South

Match Preview & Prediction

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