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Paysandu vs Floresta Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 8 ·Monday, May 25, 2026, 23:00

Paysandu

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Floresta

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-110.3%0-25.3%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.8%1-113.1%1-26.7%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.1%2-18.3%2-24.3%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.4%3-13.5%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.2% 54.1% 1.85 -16.4%

Draw 28.3% 32.3% 3.10 -7.4%

Away win 26.6% 24.4% 4.10 +5.4%

Over 2.5 46.4% 41.7% 2.40 +11.4%

Over 3.5 20.0% 22.2% 4.50 -6.0%

BTTS 51.6% 47.6% 2.10 +8.4%

Home O1.5 36.2% 45.5% 2.20 -20.4%

Away O1.5 27.4% 23.8% 4.20 +9.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -25.7%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.6%

H 45% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 10.1%

#3 1–0 12.8%

#4 0–1 10.3%

#5 2–1✓ 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paysandu1.3

Floresta1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.4% · O3.5 PROB 20.0%

Form & verdict PPG

PAYSANDU · PPG 2.00

FLORESTA · PPG 2.33

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: EXCELLENT (2.00) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.33)

Win probability 1X2

Paysandu (H) 45.2%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -16.4%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.4%

Floresta (A) 26.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +5.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Paysandu face Floresta in Brazil - Serie C on Monday, May 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paysandu a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Floresta 27%, so Paysandu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Paysandu and 1.0 for Floresta (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paysandu are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.33 for Floresta. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +21.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Paysandu vs Floresta Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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