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Ituano vs Botafogo PB Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 8 ·Monday, May 25, 2026, 23:00

Ituano

PPG 3.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Botafogo PB

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 40.8% — a clear edge.

+50.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-14.5%0-21.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.5%1-19.4%1-23.8%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.0%2-19.7%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.3%3-16.8%3-22.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.0%4+-15.7%4+-22.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.6% 52.4% 1.91 +10.0%

Draw 23.4% 33.3% 3.00 -17.9%

Away win 19.0% 25.0% 4.00 -14.4%

Over 2.5 59.1% 37.0% 2.70 +59.6%

Over 3.5 32.9% 23.1% 4.33 +42.5%

BTTS 51.6% 44.4% 2.25 +16.1%

Home O1.5 61.6% 40.8% 2.45 +50.9%

Away O1.5 19.6% 22.2% 4.50 -7.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -25.7%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.6%

H 58% / xG 2.1-0.8 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.0%

#2 1–1 9.4%

#3 1–0✓ 11.5%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 3–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ituano2.1

Botafogo PB0.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 32.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ITUANO · PPG 3.00

BOTAFOGO PB · PPG 0.75

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=57.6%

Win probability 1X2

Ituano (H) 57.6%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +10.0%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -17.9%

Botafogo PB (A) 19.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -14.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ituano face Botafogo PB in Brazil - Serie C on Monday, May 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ituano a 58% chance, the draw 23% and Botafogo PB 19%, so Ituano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Ituano and 0.8 for Botafogo PB (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ituano are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.75 for Botafogo PB. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +62.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Ituano vs Botafogo PB Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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