Today / Brazil - Serie A / Coritiba vs Bahia

Coritiba vs Bahia Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 17 ·Monday, May 25, 2026, 23:00

Coritiba

PPG 1.29 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

Bahia

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-111.4%0-25.9%0-32.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.0%1-113.4%1-26.9%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.6%2-17.8%2-24.0%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.0%3-13.0%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.8% 39.4% 2.54 +1.1%

Draw 31.7% 31.3% 3.20 +1.4%

Away win 28.4% 36.5% 2.74 -13.3%

Over 2.5 46.2% 50.0% 2.00 -7.6%

Over 3.5 18.0% 28.2% 3.55 -21.7%

BTTS 49.8% 57.1% 1.75 -12.8%

Home O1.5 32.6% 41.7% 2.40 -21.8%

Away O1.5 27.4% 39.2% 2.55 -18.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 51%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.8%

H 40% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 11.1%

#3 1–0 13.0%

#4 0–1 11.4%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Coritiba1.2

Bahia1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CORITIBA · PPG 1.29

BAHIA · PPG 1.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.86) vs Home AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Coritiba (H) 39.8%

ODDS 2.54 · IMPLIED 39.4% EV +1.1%

Draw 31.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +1.4%

Bahia (A) 28.4%

ODDS 2.74 · IMPLIED 36.5% EV -13.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Coritiba face Bahia in Brazil - Serie A on Monday, May 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Coritiba a 40% chance, the draw 32% and Bahia 28%, so Coritiba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Coritiba and 1.0 for Bahia (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Coritiba are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.86 for Bahia. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.4%. This match finished 3-2.

Coritiba vs Bahia Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie A Predictions