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Botafogo SP vs Athletic Club Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 10 ·Monday, May 25, 2026, 22:00

Botafogo SP

PPG 1.25 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Athletic Club

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.3%0-111.6%0-25.0%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.2%1-113.3%1-25.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.8%2-17.6%2-23.3%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.4%3-12.9%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.1%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% 50.0% 2.00 -10.8%

Draw 30.2% 32.3% 3.10 -6.4%

Away win 25.2% 25.0% 4.00 +0.5%

Over 2.5 44.9% 40.8% 2.45 +10.0%

Over 3.5 14.6% 21.1% 4.75 -18.4%

BTTS 48.6% 48.8% 2.05 -0.4%

Home O1.5 31.9% 42.6% 2.35 -25.0%

Away O1.5 21.7% 25.0% 4.00 -7.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 101 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 15.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.6%

H 45% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 13.3%

#3 1–0 15.2%

#4 0–1 11.6%

#5 2–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Botafogo SP1.1

Athletic Club0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.9% · O3.5 PROB 14.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BOTAFOGO SP · PPG 1.25

ATHLETIC CLUB · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Botafogo SP (H) 44.6%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -10.8%

Draw 30.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -6.4%

Athletic Club (A) 25.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Botafogo SP face Athletic Club in Brazil - Serie B on Monday, May 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Botafogo SP a 45% chance, the draw 30% and Athletic Club 25%, so Botafogo SP are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Botafogo SP and 0.9 for Athletic Club (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Botafogo SP are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.25 for Athletic Club. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Botafogo SP vs Athletic Club Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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