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Alianza A. vs FC Cajamarca Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura - 16 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 20:30

Alianza A.

PPG 1.71 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

FC Cajamarca

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 63.3%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-16.9%0-22.8%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.9%1-111.4%1-24.7%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.5%2-19.4%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.3%3-15.2%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-13.1%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 63.3% 1.58 -17.2%

Draw 25.8% 26.7% 3.75 -1.9%

Away win 21.8% 16.9% 5.90 +17.2%

Over 2.5 47.6% 50.0% 2.00 -4.8%

Over 3.5 23.6% 29.0% 3.45 -11.2%

BTTS 51.5% 51.8% 1.93 -0.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.5%

H 52% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.4%

#2 1–0 13.9%

#3 2–0 11.5%

#4 0–0 8.4%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alianza A.1.7

FC Cajamarca0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ALIANZA A. · PPG 1.71

FC CAJAMARCA · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.71) vs P(Home)=52.4%

Win probability 1X2

Alianza A. (H) 52.4%

ODDS 1.58 · IMPLIED 63.3% EV -17.2%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -1.9%

FC Cajamarca (A) 21.8%

ODDS 5.90 · IMPLIED 16.9% EV +17.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alianza A. face FC Cajamarca in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alianza A. a 52% chance, the draw 26% and FC Cajamarca 22%, so Alianza A. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Alianza A. and 0.8 for FC Cajamarca (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alianza A. are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.50 for FC Cajamarca. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +17.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Alianza A. vs FC Cajamarca Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Primera División Predictions