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Derry City vs Shelbourne Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Regular Season - 24 ·Monday, May 25, 2026, 18:45

Derry City

PPG 1.44 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Shelbourne

PPG 2.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-110.7%0-26.4%0-32.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-011.0%1-113.0%1-27.8%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.7%2-17.9%2-24.7%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.7%3-13.2%3-21.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.6% 43.1% 2.32 -15.1%

Draw 27.6% 30.8% 3.25 -6.2%

Away win 35.8% 33.3% 3.00 +7.4%

Over 2.5 47.6% 47.6% 2.10 -0.0%

Over 3.5 22.3% 26.3% 3.80 -9.2%

BTTS 51.6% 55.6% 1.80 -7.1%

Home O1.5 34.4% 42.0% 2.38 -18.1%

Away O1.5 33.4% 35.1% 2.85 -4.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 6.0%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob51.6%

H 37% / xG 1.2-1.2 / U2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0✓ 9.0%

#3 1–0 11.0%

#4 0–1 10.7%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Derry City1.2

Shelbourne1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 22.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DERRY CITY · PPG 1.44

SHELBOURNE · PPG 2.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.13) vs Home AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Derry City (H) 36.6%

ODDS 2.32 · IMPLIED 43.1% EV -15.1%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -6.2%

Shelbourne (A) 35.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +7.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Derry City face Shelbourne in Ireland - Premier Division on Monday, May 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Derry City a 37% chance, the draw 28% and Shelbourne 36%, so Derry City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Derry City and 1.2 for Shelbourne (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Derry City are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 2.13 for Shelbourne. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +7.4%. This match finished 0-0.

Derry City vs Shelbourne Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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