Today / England - Non League Premier - Southern South / Poole Town vs Havant e W.

Poole Town vs Havant e W. Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern South

Regular Season - 41 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Poole Town

PPG 1.80 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Havant e W.

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 74.4% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a clear edge.

+20.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-13.0%0-22.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.5%1 1-05.0%1-17.3%1-25.3%1-32.5%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.1%2-18.8%2-26.4%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.9%3-17.2%3-25.2%3-32.5%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-17.8%4+-25.6%4+-32.7%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.2% 55.6% 1.80 +6.6%

Draw 18.9% 26.3% 3.80 -28.2%

Away win 21.9% 29.4% 3.40 -25.5%

Over 2.5 74.4% 61.7% 1.62 +20.5%

Over 3.5 54.4% — — —

BTTS 69.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob69.8%

H 59% / xG 2.4-1.4 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.8%

#2 1–1 7.3%

#3 3–1 7.2%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 2–0✓ 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Poole Town2.4

Havant e W.1.4

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.4% · O3.5 PROB 54.4%

Form & verdict PPG

POOLE TOWN · PPG 1.80

HAVANT E W. · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.80) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Poole Town (H) 59.2%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +6.6%

Draw 18.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -28.2%

Havant e W. (A) 21.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -25.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Poole Town face Havant e W. in England - Non League Premier - Southern South on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Poole Town a 59% chance, the draw 19% and Havant e W. 22%, so Poole Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Poole Town and 1.4 for Havant e W. (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Poole Town are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.25 for Havant e W.. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +20.5%. This match finished 2-0.

Poole Town vs Havant e W. Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern South

Match Preview & Prediction

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