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Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Regular Season - 10 ·Monday, May 25, 2026, 17:15

Sandefjord

PPG 1.75 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Fredrikstad

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-19.1%0-23.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.0%1-112.6%1-25.2%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.4%2-18.7%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.8%3-14.0%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-11.9%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.5% 54.1% 1.85 -8.4%

Draw 26.6% 26.0% 3.85 +1.5%

Away win 23.9% 26.7% 3.75 -6.2%

Over 2.5 46.2% 61.7% 1.62 -25.2%

Over 3.5 18.5% 39.2% 2.55 -31.7%

BTTS 49.2% 64.5% 1.55 -23.7%

Home O1.5 40.3% 57.8% 1.73 -30.3%

Away O1.5 20.4% 37.7% 2.65 -27.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -16.0%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 50% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.6%

#2 1–0 15.0%

#3 0–0 10.8%

#4 2–0 10.4%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sandefjord1.4

Fredrikstad0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SANDEFJORD · PPG 1.75

FREDRIKSTAD · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=49.5%

Win probability 1X2

Sandefjord (H) 49.5%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -8.4%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +1.5%

Fredrikstad (A) 23.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -6.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sandefjord face Fredrikstad in Norway - Eliteserien on Monday, May 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sandefjord a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Fredrikstad 24%, so Sandefjord are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sandefjord and 0.8 for Fredrikstad (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sandefjord are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.60 for Fredrikstad. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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