Today / Sweden - Superettan / Norrkoping vs Oster

Norrkoping vs Oster Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Regular Season - 9 ·Monday, May 25, 2026, 17:05

Norrkoping

PPG 1.33 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Oster

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 69.0% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-13.4%0-21.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.0%1-18.0%1-24.1%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.5%2-19.6%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.6%3-17.7%3-23.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-08.0%4+-18.1%4+-24.1%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.6% 60.6% 1.65 -3.3%

Draw 21.2% 24.4% 4.10 -7.8%

Away win 20.2% 21.7% 4.60 -4.3%

Over 2.5 63.9% 63.7% 1.57 +0.3%

Over 3.5 44.2% 40.8% 2.45 +8.3%

BTTS 59.4% 64.5% 1.55 -7.9%

Home O1.5 69.0% 63.7% 1.57 +8.3%

Away O1.5 26.8% 34.7% 2.88 -13.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob59.4%

H 59% / xG 2.4-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.6%

#2 2–0✓ 9.5%

#3 1–1 8.0%

#4 3–1 7.7%

#5 3–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Norrkoping2.4

Oster1.0

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 44.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NORRKOPING · PPG 1.33

OSTER · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Norrkoping (H) 58.6%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -3.3%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -7.8%

Oster (A) 20.2%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -4.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Norrkoping face Oster in Sweden - Superettan on Monday, May 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Norrkoping a 59% chance, the draw 21% and Oster 20%, so Norrkoping are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Norrkoping and 1.0 for Oster (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Norrkoping are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Oster. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +16.2%. This match finished 2-0.

Norrkoping vs Oster Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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