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IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Regular Season - 9 ·Monday, May 25, 2026, 17:00

IFK Goteborg

PPG 0.33 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Mjallby

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 38.5% — a clear edge.

+59.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-115.5%0-213.4%0-37.8%0-4+5.0%1 1-06.1%1-110.6%1-29.1%1-35.3%1-4+3.4%2 2-02.1%2-13.6%2-23.1%2-31.8%2-4+1.1%3 3-00.5%3-10.8%3-20.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.1% 36.4% 2.75 -36.7%

Draw 24.6% 32.3% 3.10 -14.2%

Away win 61.3% 38.5% 2.60 +59.4%

Over 2.5 47.6% 50.0% 2.00 -4.8%

Over 3.5 22.4% 28.6% 3.50 -13.0%

BTTS 48.6% 58.8% 1.70 -17.4%

Home O1.5 14.9% 40.0% 2.50 -37.6%

Away O1.5 51.7% 41.7% 2.40 +24.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 10.2%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob48.6%

A 61% / xG 0.7-1.7 / U2.5 48% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.5%

#2 0–2 13.4%

#3 1–1✓ 10.6%

#4 0–0 9.0%

#5 1–2 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IFK Goteborg0.7

Mjallby1.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 22.4%

Form & verdict PPG

IFK GOTEBORG · PPG 0.33

MJALLBY · PPG 1.60

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.60) vs Home POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

IFK Goteborg (H) 14.1%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -36.7%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.2%

Mjallby (A) 61.3%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +59.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

IFK Goteborg face Mjallby in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Monday, May 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IFK Goteborg a 14% chance, the draw 25% and Mjallby 61%, so Mjallby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for IFK Goteborg and 1.7 for Mjallby (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IFK Goteborg are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 1.60 for Mjallby. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +59.4%. This match finished 1-1.

IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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