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Elfsborg vs Hacken Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Regular Season - 9 ·Monday, May 25, 2026, 17:00

Elfsborg

PPG 2.20 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Hacken

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-19.7%0-25.2%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.9%1-112.9%1-27.0%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.0%2-18.6%2-24.6%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.5%3-13.8%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.7%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 37.0% 2.70 +22.9%

Draw 27.9% 29.4% 3.40 -3.1%

Away win 26.6% 40.8% 2.45 -20.9%

Over 2.5 47.6% 54.6% 1.83 -12.9%

Over 3.5 22.5% 33.3% 3.00 -19.5%

BTTS 51.6% 62.5% 1.60 -17.4%

Home O1.5 38.5% 42.6% 2.35 -9.5%

Away O1.5 29.4% 46.5% 2.15 -22.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 10.2%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob51.6%

H 46% / xG 1.3-1.1 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.9%

#3 1–0 11.9%

#4 2–1 8.6%

#5 2–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Elfsborg1.3

Hacken1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 22.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ELFSBORG · PPG 2.20

HACKEN · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.20), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Elfsborg (H) 45.5%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +22.9%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -3.1%

Hacken (A) 26.6%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -20.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Elfsborg face Hacken in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Monday, May 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Elfsborg a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Hacken 27%, so Elfsborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Elfsborg and 1.1 for Hacken (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Elfsborg are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 2.00 for Hacken. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +22.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Elfsborg vs Hacken Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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