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Spaeri vs Meshakhte Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Regular Season - 15 ·Monday, May 25, 2026, 17:00

Spaeri

PPG 1.13 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Meshakhte

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-17.3%0-22.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.3%1-111.5%1-24.3%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.1%2-19.1%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.4%3-14.8%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-12.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 54.6% 1.83 -4.1%

Draw 25.8% 32.3% 3.10 -12.0%

Away win 21.8% 25.6% 3.90 -9.0%

Over 2.5 46.9% 51.3% 1.95 -8.6%

Over 3.5 20.9% 30.5% 3.28 -18.9%

BTTS 49.1% 55.6% 1.80 -11.6%

Home O1.5 47.1% 52.1% 1.92 -9.6%

Away O1.5 17.5% 29.2% 3.42 -24.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 6.7%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.1%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.8 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.3%

#2 1–1 11.5%

#3 2–0 12.1%

#4 0–0 9.6%

#5 2–1✓ 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spaeri1.6

Meshakhte0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.9% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SPAERI · PPG 1.13

MESHAKHTE · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.13), Away POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

Spaeri (H) 52.4%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -4.1%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -12.0%

Meshakhte (A) 21.8%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -9.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Spaeri face Meshakhte in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Monday, May 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spaeri a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Meshakhte 22%, so Spaeri are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Spaeri and 0.8 for Meshakhte (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spaeri are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 0.86 for Meshakhte. This match finished 2-1.

Spaeri vs Meshakhte Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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