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P. Parkway vs Hanwell Town Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern South

Regular Season - 41 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

P. Parkway

PPG 1.65 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Hanwell Town

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.65) > Away POOR (0.90)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-15.7%0-24.7%0-32.6%0-4+1.5%1 1-06.0%1-19.8%1-28.0%1-34.4%1-4+2.6%2 2-05.1%2-18.4%2-26.9%2-33.8%2-4+2.2%3 3-02.9%3-14.8%3-24.0%3-32.2%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-13.0%4+-22.5%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.2% 40.8% 2.45 -1.5%

Draw 22.8% 26.7% 3.75 -14.5%

Away win 37.0% 43.5% 2.30 -14.9%

Over 2.5 65.2% 63.7% 1.57 +2.4%

Over 3.5 43.2% — — —

BTTS 66.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob66.1%

H 40% / xG 1.7-1.6 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 1–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

P. Parkway1.7

Hanwell Town1.6

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.2% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

P. PARKWAY · PPG 1.65

HANWELL TOWN · PPG 0.90

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.65) > Away POOR (0.90)

Win probability 1X2

P. Parkway (H) 40.2%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -1.5%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -14.5%

Hanwell Town (A) 37.0%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -14.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

P. Parkway face Hanwell Town in England - Non League Premier - Southern South on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives P. Parkway a 40% chance, the draw 23% and Hanwell Town 37%, so P. Parkway are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for P. Parkway and 1.6 for Hanwell Town (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, P. Parkway are averaging 1.65 points per game versus 0.90 for Hanwell Town. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.4%. This match finished 2-0.

P. Parkway vs Hanwell Town Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern South

Match Preview & Prediction

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