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RFS vs Tukums Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 15 ·Monday, May 25, 2026, 16:00

RFS

PPG 2.29 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Tukums

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 74.5% vs bookmaker-implied 87.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-12.5%0-21.2%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.4%1-16.8%1-23.1%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.8%2-19.1%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.7%3-18.1%3-23.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-011.1%4+-110.2%4+-24.7%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.3% 88.5% 1.13 -29.6%

Draw 21.2% 14.7% 6.80 +26.5%

Away win 16.5% 7.1% 14.00 +78.6%

Over 2.5 63.9% 76.9% 1.30 -16.9%

Over 3.5 48.2% 56.5% 1.77 -14.7%

BTTS 54.6% 52.6% 1.90 +3.7%

Home O1.5 74.5% 87.0% 1.15 -14.3%

Away O1.5 23.6% 20.0% 5.00 +10.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.6%

H 62% / xG 2.7-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 3–0 8.7%

#4 3–1✓ 8.1%

#5 1–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

RFS2.7

Tukums0.9

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 48.2%

Form & verdict PPG

RFS · PPG 2.29

TUKUMS · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.29) vs P(Home)=62.3%

Win probability 1X2

RFS (H) 62.3%

ODDS 1.13 · IMPLIED 88.5% EV -29.6%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV +26.5%

Tukums (A) 16.5%

ODDS 14.00 · IMPLIED 7.1% EV +78.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

RFS face Tukums in Latvia - Virsliga on Monday, May 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives RFS a 62% chance, the draw 21% and Tukums 17%, so RFS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for RFS and 0.9 for Tukums (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, RFS are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 0.67 for Tukums. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +78.6%. This match finished 3-1.

RFS vs Tukums Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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