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Hungerford vs Dorchester Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern South

Regular Season - 41 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Hungerford

PPG 1.05 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Dorchester

PPG 0.95 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.05), Away POOR (0.95)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-16.4%0-25.2%0-32.9%0-4+1.7%1 1-06.2%1-110.2%1-28.4%1-34.6%1-4+2.7%2 2-05.0%2-18.2%2-26.8%2-33.7%2-4+2.2%3 3-02.7%3-14.4%3-23.6%3-32.0%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.5%4+-22.1%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.7% 43.5% 2.30 -13.3%

Draw 23.2% 27.0% 3.70 -14.2%

Away win 39.1% 40.8% 2.45 -4.2%

Over 2.5 63.1% 62.5% 1.60 +1.0%

Over 3.5 40.9% — — —

BTTS 64.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob64.5%

A 39% / xG 1.6-1.6 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 0–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hungerford1.6

Dorchester1.6

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.9%

Form & verdict PPG

HUNGERFORD · PPG 1.05

DORCHESTER · PPG 0.95

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.05), Away POOR (0.95)

Win probability 1X2

Hungerford (H) 37.7%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -13.3%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -14.2%

Dorchester (A) 39.1%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -4.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hungerford face Dorchester in England - Non League Premier - Southern South on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hungerford a 38% chance, the draw 23% and Dorchester 39%, so Dorchester are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Hungerford and 1.6 for Dorchester (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hungerford are averaging 1.05 points per game versus 0.95 for Dorchester. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.0%. This match finished 0-0.

Hungerford vs Dorchester Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern South

Match Preview & Prediction

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