Today / Norway - Eliteserien / Tromso vs Aalesund

Tromso vs Aalesund Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Regular Season - 10 ·Monday, May 25, 2026, 15:00

Tromso

PPG 2.29 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Aalesund

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 57.8% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-15.3%0-22.4%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.1%1-110.2%1-24.7%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.8%2-19.9%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.0%3-16.4%3-23.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-14.9%4+-22.2%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 69.4% 1.44 -23.4%

Draw 24.7% 22.2% 4.50 +6.7%

Away win 22.1% 14.7% 6.80 +30.2%

Over 2.5 56.0% 64.5% 1.55 -13.2%

Over 3.5 32.2% 42.6% 2.35 -24.3%

BTTS 52.6% 59.9% 1.67 -12.2%

Home O1.5 57.8% 70.4% 1.42 -17.9%

Away O1.5 23.5% 27.4% 3.65 -8.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -16.0%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 53% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.2%

#2 2–0 10.8%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 11.1%

#5 0–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tromso1.9

Aalesund0.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TROMSO · PPG 2.29

AALESUND · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.29) vs P(Home)=53.2%

Win probability 1X2

Tromso (H) 53.2%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -23.4%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +6.7%

Aalesund (A) 22.1%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV +30.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tromso face Aalesund in Norway - Eliteserien on Monday, May 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tromso a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Aalesund 22%, so Tromso are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Tromso and 0.9 for Aalesund (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tromso are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 1.00 for Aalesund. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +30.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Tromso vs Aalesund Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

More Norway - Eliteserien Predictions