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Sarpsborg 08 vs Molde Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Regular Season - 10 ·Monday, May 25, 2026, 15:00

Sarpsborg 08

PPG 1.25 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Molde

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-113.1%0-28.1%0-33.4%0-4+1.4%1 1-010.6%1-113.2%1-28.2%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-05.4%2-16.7%2-24.1%2-31.7%2-4+0.7%3 3-01.8%3-12.2%3-21.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.3% 40.0% 2.50 -16.8%

Draw 28.8% 26.0% 3.85 +6.5%

Away win 38.0% 41.7% 2.40 -8.8%

Over 2.5 46.2% 66.7% 1.50 -30.7%

Over 3.5 19.1% 44.4% 2.25 -34.2%

BTTS 51.6% 70.4% 1.42 -26.7%

Home O1.5 26.8% 52.4% 1.91 -29.3%

Away O1.5 35.3% 54.1% 1.85 -34.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -16.0%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob51.6%

D 29% / xG 1.0-1.2 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 10.5%

#3 0–1 13.1%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 1–2 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sarpsborg 081.0

Molde1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 19.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SARPSBORG 08 · PPG 1.25

MOLDE · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Sarpsborg 08 (H) 33.3%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -16.8%

Draw 28.8%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +6.5%

Molde (A) 38.0%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -8.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sarpsborg 08 face Molde in Norway - Eliteserien on Monday, May 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sarpsborg 08 a 33% chance, the draw 29% and Molde 38%, so Molde are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Sarpsborg 08 and 1.2 for Molde (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sarpsborg 08 are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.00 for Molde. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +6.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Sarpsborg 08 vs Molde Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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