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HamKam vs Lillestrom Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Regular Season - 10 ·Monday, May 25, 2026, 15:00

HamKam

PPG 2.40 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Lillestrom

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-110.9%0-28.2%0-34.1%0-4+2.2%1 1-08.1%1-112.2%1-29.2%1-34.6%1-4+2.4%2 2-04.5%2-16.8%2-25.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.4%3 3-01.7%3-12.5%3-21.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.2% 33.3% 3.00 -7.4%

Draw 27.2% 27.8% 3.60 -1.3%

Away win 43.6% 46.5% 2.15 -6.3%

Over 2.5 52.6% 59.9% 1.67 -12.2%

Over 3.5 26.9% 37.0% 2.70 -16.4%

BTTS 52.6% 65.4% 1.53 -19.5%

Home O1.5 30.7% 42.6% 2.35 -27.9%

Away O1.5 44.4% 52.4% 1.91 -15.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -16.0%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob52.6%

A 44% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 0–1 10.9%

#4 0–0 7.3%

#5 0–2 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HamKam1.1

Lillestrom1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 26.9%

Form & verdict PPG

HAMKAM · PPG 2.40

LILLESTROM · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.40) > Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

HamKam (H) 29.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -7.4%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -1.3%

Lillestrom (A) 43.6%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -6.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

HamKam face Lillestrom in Norway - Eliteserien on Monday, May 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HamKam a 29% chance, the draw 27% and Lillestrom 44%, so Lillestrom are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for HamKam and 1.5 for Lillestrom (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HamKam are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 2.00 for Lillestrom. This match finished 2-0.

HamKam vs Lillestrom Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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