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Ogre United vs Grobina Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 15 ·Monday, May 25, 2026, 15:00

Ogre United

PPG 0.43 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Grobina

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-112.0%0-26.8%0-32.6%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.8%1-113.4%1-27.5%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-06.6%2-17.4%2-24.2%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.4%3-12.8%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.3% 28.2% 3.55 +25.3%

Draw 28.4% 29.9% 3.35 -2.9%

Away win 36.3% 52.4% 1.91 -30.7%

Over 2.5 46.2% 51.8% 1.93 -10.8%

Over 3.5 18.9% 29.9% 3.35 -22.0%

BTTS 51.6% 57.8% 1.73 -10.7%

Home O1.5 30.5% 33.3% 3.00 -8.5%

Away O1.5 31.2% 51.3% 1.95 -39.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob51.6%

D 28% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.4%

#2 0–0 10.6%

#3 0–1 12.0%

#4 1–0 11.8%

#5 1–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ogre United1.1

Grobina1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.9%

Form & verdict PPG

OGRE UNITED · PPG 0.43

GROBINA · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.43)

Win probability 1X2

Ogre United (H) 35.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +25.3%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -2.9%

Grobina (A) 36.3%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -30.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ogre United face Grobina in Latvia - Virsliga on Monday, May 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ogre United a 35% chance, the draw 28% and Grobina 36%, so Grobina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Ogre United and 1.1 for Grobina (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ogre United are averaging 0.43 points per game versus 1.50 for Grobina. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +25.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Ogre United vs Grobina Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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