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Farnham Town vs Berkhamsted Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern South

Regular Season - 41 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Farnham Town

PPG 2.05 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Berkhamsted

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-14.5%0-22.7%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-07.9%1-19.4%1-25.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.2%2-19.8%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.7%3-16.8%3-24.0%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-15.8%4+-23.4%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.1% 61.7% 1.62 -5.9%

Draw 20.8% 25.6% 3.90 -18.9%

Away win 21.1% 25.0% 4.00 -15.6%

Over 2.5 63.6% 59.9% 1.67 +6.2%

Over 3.5 41.5% — — —

BTTS 60.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.9%

H 58% / xG 2.1-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.8%

#2 1–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 1–0✓ 7.9%

#5 3–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Farnham Town2.1

Berkhamsted1.2

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 41.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FARNHAM TOWN · PPG 2.05

BERKHAMSTED · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.05) > Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Farnham Town (H) 58.1%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -5.9%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -18.9%

Berkhamsted (A) 21.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -15.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Farnham Town face Berkhamsted in England - Non League Premier - Southern South on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Farnham Town a 58% chance, the draw 21% and Berkhamsted 21%, so Farnham Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Farnham Town and 1.2 for Berkhamsted (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Farnham Town are averaging 2.05 points per game versus 1.60 for Berkhamsted. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Farnham Town vs Berkhamsted Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern South

Match Preview & Prediction

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