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Skjetten vs Harstad Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Regular Season - 8 ·Monday, May 25, 2026, 14:00

Skjetten

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Harstad

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.3% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-12.0%0-22.3%0-31.7%0-4+1.6%1 1-02.2%1-15.0%1-25.6%1-34.2%1-4+3.9%2 2-02.8%2-16.2%2-26.9%2-35.1%2-4+4.8%3 3-02.3%3-15.1%3-25.7%3-34.2%3-4+4.0%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-15.6%4+-26.3%4+-34.7%4+-4+4.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.4% 48.8% 2.05 -9.0%

Draw 21.3% 24.4% 4.10 -7.6%

Away win 34.3% 39.2% 2.55 -12.5%

Over 2.5 73.3% 73.5% 1.36 -0.3%

Over 3.5 69.1% 55.9% 1.79 +23.7%

BTTS 66.7% 77.5% 1.29 -14.0%

Home O1.5 70.6% 64.5% 1.55 +9.4%

Away O1.5 65.4% 56.5% 1.77 +15.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 80%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 20%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob66.7%

H 44% / xG 2.5-2.2 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.9%

#2 2–1 6.2%

#3 1–1 5.0%

#4 3–2 5.7%

#5 1–2✓ 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Skjetten2.5

Harstad2.2

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.3% · O3.5 PROB 69.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SKJETTEN · PPG 1.00

HARSTAD · PPG 0.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Skjetten (H) 44.4%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -9.0%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -7.6%

Harstad (A) 34.3%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -12.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Skjetten face Harstad in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5 on Monday, May 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Skjetten a 44% chance, the draw 21% and Harstad 34%, so Skjetten are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Skjetten and 2.2 for Harstad (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Skjetten are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.00 for Harstad. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +23.7%. This match finished 1-2.

Skjetten vs Harstad Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Match Preview & Prediction

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