Today / Norway - Eliteserien / Start vs Valerenga

Start vs Valerenga Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Regular Season - 10 ·Monday, May 25, 2026, 12:30

Start

PPG 0.75 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Valerenga

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-110.0%0-27.7%0-34.0%0-4+2.2%1 1-07.7%1-111.9%1-29.2%1-34.8%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.6%2-17.1%2-25.5%2-32.8%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.8%3-12.8%3-22.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.5% 34.5% 2.90 -8.6%

Draw 26.0% 27.0% 3.70 -2.3%

Away win 42.5% 45.5% 2.20 -6.5%

Over 2.5 52.6% 63.7% 1.57 -17.4%

Over 3.5 29.5% 41.7% 2.40 -17.5%

BTTS 54.6% 67.6% 1.48 -19.2%

Home O1.5 33.4% 46.5% 2.15 -28.2%

Away O1.5 45.8% 54.1% 1.85 -15.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -16.0%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.6%

A 42% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 0–0 6.5%

#4 0–1 10.0%

#5 0–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Start1.2

Valerenga1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.5%

Form & verdict PPG

START · PPG 0.75

VALERENGA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.75), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Start (H) 31.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -8.6%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -2.3%

Valerenga (A) 42.5%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -6.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Start face Valerenga in Norway - Eliteserien on Monday, May 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Start a 32% chance, the draw 26% and Valerenga 43%, so Valerenga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Start and 1.5 for Valerenga (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Start are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.00 for Valerenga. This match finished 2-0.

Start vs Valerenga Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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