Today / Brazil - Serie B / Operario PR vs Criciuma

Operario PR vs Criciuma Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 10 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 23:30

Operario PR

PPG 1.60 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Criciuma

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.2%0-115.1%0-27.5%0-32.5%0-4+0.8%1 1-013.5%1-113.4%1-26.7%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.0%2-16.0%2-23.0%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.8%3-11.8%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.8% 44.4% 2.25 -28.4%

Draw 32.6% 32.8% 3.05 -0.6%

Away win 35.6% 29.9% 3.35 +19.3%

Over 2.5 35.0% 42.0% 2.38 -16.7%

Over 3.5 12.3% 22.2% 4.50 -26.8%

BTTS 48.6% 51.3% 1.95 -5.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 101 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 15.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.6%

D 33% / xG 0.9-1.0 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.2%

#2 1–1✓ 13.4%

#3 0–1 15.1%

#4 1–0 13.5%

#5 0–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Operario PR0.9

Criciuma1.0

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 12.3%

Form & verdict PPG

OPERARIO PR · PPG 1.60

CRICIUMA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.60) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Operario PR (H) 31.8%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -28.4%

Draw 32.6%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -0.6%

Criciuma (A) 35.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +19.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Operario PR face Criciuma in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Operario PR a 32% chance, the draw 33% and Criciuma 36%, so Criciuma are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Operario PR and 1.0 for Criciuma (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Operario PR are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.00 for Criciuma. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +19.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Operario PR vs Criciuma Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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